As of October 30, 2012, the Development Bank of Mongolia has disbursed the funds of MNT 354.4 billion to the following projects:
· MNT 74.4 billion for 20 auto road construction and 21 design and drawing projects,
· MNT 40 billion for 6% mortgage loan to the State Bank,
· MNT 8.2 billion to SME Development Fund,
· USD 100 million to Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi LLC for railroad project,
· USD 61.3 million for expansion work of Khutul Cement and Chalk LLC, and
· USD 5.3 million for the purchase of new airplanes to MIAT LLC.
The Bank is planning to disburse MNT 672.7 billion by the end of this year.
http://www.dbm.mn/en |
Development Bank of Mongolia Intern
To document my experience and share my insight and opinions on Mongolia’s economy.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
DBM begins disbursing funds
DBM receives Bloomberg Award for Debut Bond
Development Bank of Mongolia received Bloomberg Award at the closing reception ceremony of Mongolia Economic Forum 2013 for the issuance of first sovereign bond in the international market. DBM issued US$580,000,000 bond which is due 2017 on March 14, 2012 at a comparatively low interest of 5.75%. This landmark transaction opens international bond market to Mongolian borrowers and it was the cornerstone for the successful issuance of US$ 1.5 billion Chinggis Bond on December 29, 2012.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Coking Coal in Mongolia
Devon Healy
1. Introduction
Mongolia is a developing country in central/eastern Asia. It is about
three times the size of France with less than three million people and over 30
million heads of livestock. Mongols are a traditional nomadic people and their
economy has been centered on herding and agriculture for hundreds of years
(World Bank, 2012).
Mongolia is unique in that it is in the initial stages of completely
transforming its economy from agricultural based to mining based. In 2011
Mongolia was the world’s fastest growing economy with 17.2% GDP growth, namely due
to of investments in enormous mining projects and increasing exports of coal to
China (World Bank, 2012). Though growing very quickly, Mongolia is
still a very poor country with 29.8% of its population living in poverty (World
Bank, 2012). It only recently graduated to ‘lower-middle-income’ status with
real per-capita income at PPP around $3674 (OBG, 2012).
I chose to focus on Mongolia because
economists have identified it as an economy that is ready for launch. In 2011, economists Willem Buiter and Ebrahim
Rahbari projected that Mongolia would be the world’s fastest growing economy
over the next two decades due to its extraordinary untapped mineral reserves, a
relatively small population, high levels of foreign investment and proximity
China.
(OBG, 2012). Though the future looks very promising for Mongolia, its economy
is still very vulnerable to negative commodity price shocks and overheating.
Mongolia is completely landlocked between two geo-political giants, Russia and
China. Mongolia’s geographic isolation makes it very difficult to access
foreign markets, which means its economic growth is almost completely dependent
on stable commodity prices and sustained growth in China, which currently
imports 91.5% of Mongolia’s exports (NSOM, 2012).
This essay will focus on one of Mongolia’s most strategically significant
resources, coking coal. Coking coal is a pure type of bitumous coal and is used
as a fuel and reducing agent in the smelting of iron ore in a blast furnace. Mongolia
has abundant and untapped reserves of coking coal that lie conveniently along
its boarder with China, which is the world’s largest and fastest-growing market
for coking coal. This essay will focus on the period starting in 2005, when
China first became a net importer of coking coal, and up to the present
(November 2012). The essay will start with a look at potential consumers in the
Asian market and the nature of demand, followed by a look at supply shortages
in the global coking coal market, then a look at competition and competitive
advantage in transport and ending with a critique of government policy and
practice.
Term:
Metallurgical coal: (or met coal) is another term for coking coal.
Mt: million tonnes
2. Nature of
Demand
Mongolia
currently has no domestic steel production, so all of its coking coal is
produced for export to foreign consumers, mainly in China. There are 31
countries in the world that have domestic steel production that is reliant on coking
coal (WSA, 2011). China is the world’s largest steel producer, the world’s largest
metallurgical coal consumer and the world’s largest met coal producer. Japan is
the largest met coal importer, followed by China, South Korea and India
respectively.
Potential
Asian Consumers: Top Steel Producers and Metallurgical Coal Importers
Steel production 2011 (Mt)*
|
% of total 2011 world steel
production
|
Coking coal imports 2011 (Mt)^
|
|
PR China
|
683.3
|
45.8
|
38
|
Japan
|
107.6
|
7.2
|
54
|
South
Korea
|
68.5
|
4.6
|
32
|
India
|
72.2
|
4.8
|
19
|
*World Steel Association (2011)
^World Coal Association, (2012)
Coking coal
consumption in Asia has been mainly driven by rising production of steel in
China, which is being used to build infrastructure, railways, roads,
skyscrapers, factories, cars and appliances (WSA, 2012). The production of
steel represents an important basis for the rapid growth and urbanization seen
in China over the past decade. China’s rising demand for coking coal imports
even as prices rise suggests a low responsiveness of demand to changes in the
coking coal price, especially in developing economies. This price inelasticity
can be explained on a macro level because developing economies tend to spend
more on large-scale infrastructure projects that are steel intensive and
governments tend to subsidize these infrastructure projects in order to target
infrastructure bottlenecks that restrict growth, as China began doing September
2012 to avoid an economic slow down (Business Standard, 2012).
Steel is
100% recyclable, which represents a substitute for metallurgical coal.
Recycling steel is extremely cost effective, which is why recycled steel
represents 50% of total steel production in the United States. But these levels
of recycling are harder to attain in developing economies where growth in
demand outpaces the steel scrap cycle, which is why China’s recycle rate was
only 8% in 2009 (China Daily, 2010). Therefore, this option for substitution is
much more limited in developing economies, further emphasizing the price
inelasticity of demand.
Long and
short term price elasticity of demand for metallurgical coal in Asia
Price ($/ton) adjusted to 2005 prices *
|
Demand represented
by import demand^
|
Price
Elasticity (yoy)
|
|
2011
|
96.86
|
147 Mt
|
1.46
|
2010
|
105.95
|
168 Mt
|
0.83
|
2009
|
75.65
|
110 Mt
|
-0.26
|
2008
|
71.34
|
128 Mt
|
-0.73
|
2007
|
85.71
|
114 Mt
|
-0.13
|
2006
|
48.15
|
127 Mt
|
--
|
2005-2011
|
0.15
|
* Y Charts, (2012)
^ World Coal Association, (2012
The income
elasticity of demand for metallurgical coal is derived from the income
elasticity of demand for steel, which is very high. On a micro level,
individual consumers tend to spend more on steel products like cars and
appliances as their incomes rise above a certain level. For instance, the
income elasticity of demand for automobiles is very high at 2.98 because
consumers tend to spend a disproportionately high percentage of their income on
a car once they have reached a certain income level (Xin Deng, 2006).
China’s
consumption of coking coal grew 158% from 2006 to 2011 rising from 210 Mt per
year to 542 Mt, an average rate of 31.2% per year, and China now consumes well
over 50% of the world’s coking coal (The Washington Post, 2012). China has its
own domestic coking coal reserves, but these reserves only account for about
13% of the global total and are being depleted rapidly to meet growing domestic
demand (CEFIP, 2012). China’s export demand for met coal was 38 Mt in 2011,
down 20.8% on 2010 but up 322.2% over the past 5 years. Import demand in China
is expected to remain relatively high even as the pace of economic growth
slows, mainly due to the limitations of China’s domestic supply.
Other
markets in Asia will buoy demand for coking coal. South Korean demand has risen
over the last five years a rate of 10.5% per year, while Japan’s coking coal
consumption has fallen 37.2% over the same period, a rate of -7.4% per year
(WCA, 2012). The most significant new player is India, which is expected to
follow China towards rapid industrialization over the next decade and is
projected to become the world’s second biggest producer of steel and consumer
of met coal by 2015 (Economic Times, 2012). India has substantial coal reserves
but like China is a net importer of coal.
Japan, South
Korea and India are currently excluded from the market for Mongolian coking
coal, though all could potentially become consumers over the next five years.
In 2011 and the first ten months of 2012, 99.7% of Mongolian metallurgical coal
was exported to China because of the proximity to steel producers in northern
and eastern China and inadequate railway infrastructure to export to other
markets (NSOM, 2012).
3. Nature of
Supply
Demand for
coking coal is out pacing the rate of supply, which is restricted by scarcity
of reserves and high transportation costs. Scarcity of supply was evident in
late 2010 and early 2011 when floods in Australia’s Bowen Basin caused a
shortage of supply and a dramatic spike in seaborne coking coal prices. The
price of premium hard coking coal reached $378/Mt in January 2011, up from
$145/Mt in the previous month. This supply breakdown led the Chinese government
to categorize coking coal as a strategic resource that is now protected “through
incentives to optimize production and industry consolidation” in China (Platts,
2011).
China is the
largest coking coal producer in the world and produced 504 Mt in 2011, 52% of
global production. The second largest producer is Australia at 146 Mt in 2011,
15.1% of global production. Australia is the world’s largest exporter of coking
coal and currently is the most important supplier to Asia. The United States
was the second largest exporter in 2011 (63 Mt) followed by Russia (1 Mt)


Coal mining
is very capital and labour intensive and usually requires infrastructure
development to support export. Sources of supply usually take years to develop
to full capacity, meaning that the short-term price elasticity of supply is
very inelastic. Long-term elasticity of supply is much more elastic because
long-term rises in price can make large scale mining projects more feasible and
will attract high levels of investment. Similarly a fall in prices over time will
deteriorate feasibility and deter investment. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource
Economics calculated the short-term and long-term elasticities of supply for
coking coal in Australia at 0.4 and 1.9 respectively in 1991 (ABARE, 1991).
Analysts see
supply side issues relaxing over the end of 2012 and 2013 as Australia returns
to normal levels of production, as mining in Mongolia, Russia and Mozambique
ramp up and diversify the supply market and as China’s growth slows and demand
stabilizes. They expect international coking coal prices to remain relatively
constant at around $220/Mt over 2013 (BT Invest, 2012).
4.
Competition and market power
Mongolia’s
location has the potential to improve its market power but not necessarily its
ability to affect international prices. Mongolia’s comparative advantage lies
in its proximity to the world’s largest markets for coking coal; China, Japan,
South Korea and India. But because Mongolia is landlocked and sandwiched
between two political giants, its ability to access coal markets other than
China is extremely limited.
Currently
Mongolia is at the mercy of Chinese demand and has limited ability to maneuver.
It has no rail infrastructure adequate to move large amounts of coal and
currently trucks its 20 Mt of annual coal exports across the Gobi desert to
Chinese border stations, where the coal is put on trains and shipped to steel
producers in Inner Mongolia (a province of China). Mongolia’s rail
infrastructure projects have secured financing and are currently in the
planning stages, but the first rail lines are not expect to be operational
until 2014. For now Mongolia is a price-taker with China, which is why China’s
consumers purchased Mongolian coal at about 50% below market value in 2011 (The
Gold Report, 2012).
Mongolia’s
proximity to China greatly reduces transport costs for Chinese consumers.
Mongolia’s greatest competitor for Asian markets is Australia, which has to
ship all of its exports overseas. Seaborne transport costs usually exceed the
value of the coal being delivered, which is why steel producers almost
invariably favor consumption of domestic coking coal supplies above overseas
ones. Mongolia enjoys a considerable transport and pricing advantage over its
Australian rival when exporting coking coal to China. In the case of Australian
coal being delivered to a consumer in Eastern China in November 2012, the price
at the Australian port was $82.40/mt while the delivery price at the Chinese
steel plant was $205.53/Mt. That equals $123.13/Mt in overseas transport costs,
149.9% of the value of coal. On the other hand, in November 2012 the average
price of Mongolian coal upon delivery at the Chinese border station was
$88.29/Mt, 56.4% less than the Australian price (CCR,
2012).
In 2011, Mongolia overtook Australia as
China’s number one supplier of coking coal. Because of Mongolia’s subordinate relationship
to China, Chinese consumers reap most of the benefits from the difference in
transport costs.
Lastly, Mongolia’s dependence on a handful of
commodities makes for export to a single national market make the country
extremely vulnerable to a drop in commodity prices or a considerable economic
slowdown in China. This risk was most evident during the most recent global
economic crisis, when Mongolia was hard hit by a dramatic plunge in copper
prices. Government revenue, export earnings and foreign direct investment
collapsed as a result and the country was only able to stay afloat thanks to a
loan from the IMF (OBG, 2012).
5. Government policy
In 2005, Robert
Friedland, Chairman of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., said in a speech about Mongolia to
investors, “And the nice thing about the Gobi is, there’s no railroad tracks in
the way, there are no people in the way, there are no houses in the way…there’s
no NGOs…You’ve got lots of room for waste dumps without disrupting populations…”
(Mining Watch Canada, 2011). At the time Ivanhoe was on the verge of an
agreement to develop Oyu Tolgoi, a copper and gold reserve in the Gobi desert.
When the quote was translated in the Mongolian press it set off a firestorm and
initiated an intense public debate about the growing mining industry.
The
government responded to the public outcry by renegotiating almost all of its
mining contracts and renationalizing many of the mining reserves that had been
privatized. The new government policy pursued partnerships between government
controlled mining firms and international firms, with the government holding a
stake of just over 50%. In the case of Tavan Tolgoi, the government decided to
create a new public company, Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi, which is licensed to manage
the project. In 2010, the government decided to sell 30% of TT’s shares to its
new subsidiary, it kept 40% stake and gave 10% to Mongolian citizens and 20% to
Mongolian companies (Bloomberg, 2010). These moves are improving the image of
mining amongst the population by giving people a stake in the industries
development. On the other hand, investors see view the moves with skepticism
and fear that the renegotiations are delaying projects, extending payback
periods on investments and disrupting the Mongolia’s favorable FDI environment.
The
government of Mongolia is also taking steps to address its dependence on China
through its “Third Neighbor Policy.” In accordance with this policy the
government has sought to create stronger ties with international partners in
Japan, India, South Korea and the United States in order to promote trade cooperation
and increase Mongolia’s access to foreign markets. As part of this policy
Mongolia signed a cooperation agreement with India in 2012 to build the first
steel plant in Mongolia and export the first shipment of Mongolian coal to
India by 2014 (Business Mongolia, 2012). Mongolia also has planned railway
infrastructure projects to extend railway lines from its mines in the South
Gobi to connect with Russia’s trans-Siberian to Vladivostok and markets abroad,
but funding for the projects has yet to be secured.
The last
major concern is the Mongolian government’s budget deficit, which is
particularly concerning given the near collapse in the balance of payments in
2008. The government is weighing risk between long-term Dutch Disease and
short-term fluctuations in revenue. To combat Dutch disease the government is
trying to expand its revenue base so that it can increase spending on
infrastructure. In the process it is struggling to honour its Fiscal
Responsibility Law, which will reign in spending when it goes into effect on 1
January 2013 (World Bank, 2012). Uncertainty
became stronger still after the 2012 Parliamentary Elections in June which was
the first time the opposition party won more seats that the Mongolian People’s
Party (former communist party) since the transition from communism to democracy
in 1990.
Sources:
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource
Economics, (1991), Technical Paper 91.1,
Supply response in the Australian black coal industry. Available from: http://143.188.17.20/data/warehouse/pe_abarebrs99000210/tp91.1_black_coal.pdf
[Accesssed on 6 December 2012]
Bloomberg, (2010), Mongolia Plans to Offer 30% of Tavan Tolgoi
Company.
Business
Times, Invest, (2012), Metallurgical coal
– supply side issues abating: HSBC. Available from: http://www.btinvest.com.sg/markets/commodities/metallurgical-coal-supply-side-issues-abating-hsbc/
[Accessed on
5 December 2012]
Business
Mongolia, (2012), India to set up steel
plant in Mongolia. Available from: http://www.business-mongolia.com/mongolia/2012/05/15/india-to-set-up-a-steel-plant-in-mongolia/
[Accessed on
5 December 2012]
Business
Standard, (2012), Coking coal prices to
rise on China stimulus, BHP output cut. Available from: http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/coking-coal-prices-to-risechina-stimulus-bhp-output-cut/487691/
[Accessed on
1 December 2012]
Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace, (2012), Policy
Outlook: Understanding China’s Rising Coal Imports. Available at: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/china_coal.pdf
[Accessed on
27 November 2012]
China Daily,
(2010), Metal recycling may make steel
makers less dependent. Available from: http://www.china.org.cn/business/2010-05/05/content_19973961.htm
[Accessed 5
December 2012]
Chinese Coal
Resource, (2012), Australian Coal Price
at Chinese Ports on Nov 26, 2012. Available from: http://en.sxcoal.com/558/82483/DataShow.html
[Accessed on
2 December 2012]
Chinese Coal
Resource, (2012), Mongolian Coal Price at
Chinese Ports on Nov 26, 2012. Available from:
http://en.sxcoal.com/561/82498/DataShow.html
[Accessed on
2 December 2012]
Economic
Times, (2012), India to become second
largest steel producer soon, says Beni Prasad Verma. Available from: http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-09-18/news/33925898_1_india-s-steel-production-crude-steel-steel-authority
[Accessed on
4 December 2012]
M.A.D.
Investment Solutions, (2012), Mongolia:
Energy Windfalls. Available from: http://www.mad-mongolia.com/news/mongolia-news/mongolia-energy-windfalls-10020/
[Accessed on
3 Decemeber 2012]
Mining Watch
Canada, (2011), Mining Mongolia: Ivanhoe,
T-shifts, NGOs, and Wikileaks. Available from: http://www.miningwatch.ca/fr/node/6733
[Accessed on
6 December 2012]
National
Statistics Office of Mongolia, (2012), Exports
by commodity groups and year. Available from: http://web.nso.mn:8080/userdata/Dialog/Saveshow.asp
[Accessed on
29 November 2012]
Oxford Business Group, (2012), The Report – Mongolia, Economy.
Platts,
(2011), China planning to ‘protect’
strategic coking coal resources: report. Available from: http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/Coal/8800458
[Accessed on
21 November 2012]
The Gold
Report, (2012), Major Mineral
Opportunities Uncovered in an Unexpected Place. Available from: http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/13672
[Accessed on
2 December 2012]
The
Washington Post, (2012), China turning to
Mongolia for coking coal. Available from: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-turning-to-mongolia-for-coking-coal/2011/07/16/gIQAhCHhII_graphic.html
[Accessed on
5 December 2012]
World Bank, (2012), Mongolia, Country at a Glance. Available from: http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/mongolia
[Accessed on 6 December 2012]
World Bank, (2012), Mongolia Quarterly Economic Update – October 2012. Available from: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/2012/10/30/mongolia_quarterlyeconomicupdate-october2012
[Accessed on 27 November 2012]
World Coal
Association, (2012), Coal Facts 2012.
Available from: http://www.worldcoal.org/resources/coal-statistics/
[Accessed on
25 November 2012]
World Steel
Association, (2011), World Crude Steel
Production 2011. Available from: http://www.worldsteel.org/dms/internetDocumentList/steel-stats/2011/Crude-steel-production-2011/document/2011%20steel%20updated%20Feb2012.pdf
[Accessed on
2 December 2012]
Xin Deng,
(2006), Private car ownership in China:
How important is the effect of income? Available from: http://www.ecosoc.org.au/files/File/TAS/ACE07/presentations%20(pdf)/Deng.pdf
[Accessed on
3 December 2012]
Y Charts,
(2012), Australian Coal Price. Available
from: http://ycharts.com/indicators/australia_coal_price
[Accessed on
25 November 2012]
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Desertification on the fringes of the Gobi.
90% of Mongolia is vulnerable to desertification according to the United Nations. The delicate ecosystem that traditional herdering families rely on is being put at risk by the rapid economic development and lack of suitable infrastructure to support it. The lack of railway lines and paved roads forces large trucks to drive across the desert and grasslands, kicking up dirt that smothers plants and can lead to increased rates of desertification at the fridges of the Gobi desert. Herders are feeling the impact and say that it is becoming increasingly difficult to find suitable grazing land for their herds, something they couldn't have imagined a decade ago when good land was abundant. Development has winners and losers and these herders and their thousand year old traditions are losing out in a country where there are over ten times more heads of livestock than there are people. This issue highlights the need for responsible, equitable and sustainable development in the world's fastest growing economy.
Monday, December 26, 2011
Problems for Land-Locked Countries
Mongolia is one of the 48 countries in the world that are land-locked. About one quarter of the world's 205 countries are land-locked and these countries tend to have lower human development statistics compared to the rest of the world. Being land-locked is regarded as a disadvantageous because it can severely limit a country's access to global markets and global trade. In general, coastal regions tended to be wealthier and more heavily populated than inland ones. Paul Collier in his book The Bottom Billion wrote, "If you are coastal, you serve the world; if you are landlocked, you serve your neighbors." Mongolia is no exception to these difficulties. The country has only two neighbors in China and Russia, and both countries have a very strong influence over Mongolia's economy. China for instance, controls the price of Mongolia's copper and coal exports and competitive pricing is restricted by Mongolia's limited access to international ports. China's recent growth has spilled across the border and is the main driver in Mongolia's mining driven development.
With regards to the cross-boarder transit, there are international regulations that have been established in order to protect the rights of land-locked countries' to access global markets. In 1965 there was a 'UN Convention on Transit Trade of Land-locked States,' which granted special protections to land-locked countries with regards to access to sea ports and world trade. In 1982, there was a United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea, which protects the freedom of transit for land-locked states. Unfortunately both conventions are subject to bilateral, sub-regional or regional agreements. In other words, the rights of transit must be agreed upon with the transit neighbor in a formal trade agreement. In practice the protections granted in the UN conventions are not always honored by the transit country. The rights of transit of land-locked developing countries (LLDCs) remains an unresolved issue in international economic policy. Mongolia held a conference for LLDCs to discuss these trade issues in 2007.
Mongolia is currently looking for ways to gain access to Korea and Japanese markets to sell its coal exports. The most direct route to these markets is through China and the port city of Tianjin, which has a free trade area. There is also the possibility of going through Russia, through Vladivostok, but it is not certain that Russia's rail network can support the quantity of coal that Mongolia is expected to export from its Tavan Tolgoi mine. Also, going through Russia will have significantly higher transit costs given the distance that needs to be traveled. Vladivostok can be reached from Mongolia by either going directly north to Russia and then circling around Manchuria, or by going Northeast and cutting through Northern Manchuria. Either way the distance that needs to be traveled by rail is significantly higher than the route through China to Tianjin.
Mongolia will need to negotiate with China or Russia to set up some kind of transit agreement. China has no incentive to grant free transit because it already enjoys control over Mongolia's coal exports. However, if Russia is approached first, it might be possible to pressure China into a more favorable agreement (Plan A). If China does not budge then plan B would be to secure a deal with Russia and accept the higher transit fees. The UN conventions will most likely help Mongolia's case at the bargaining table, but once again they hold little clout because they are not often followed and have no history of enforcement. Mongolia might also be helped by the World Trade Organization, of which Russia, China and Mongolia are members. However, it would be important to isolate Russia and China in negotiations in order to reduce the chance that they might collaborate to restrict Mongolia's export markets.
DBM is currently raising funds for a railroad project that will run directly from Tavan Tolgoi to a Chinese border station. A later phase in the National Rail Project will connect TT with to the Russian boarder station.
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